Looking forward to the 2026 midterm elections from a year or two out, Republicans faced a favorable Senate map and seemingly realistic prospects for gains in that chamber. Georgia and Michigan, both of which President Trump had carried in 2024, presented possible pickup opportunities, especially after Michigan Democrat Gary Peters announced in January 2025 that he wouldn’t be seeking reelection. Meanwhile, no Republican seat looked overly challenging to defend. The only one the GOP would need to hold in a state Trump had lost was in Maine, where Susan Collins had already triumphed five times since Republicans last carried the state in a presidential race. With a 53-47 Senate majority and this favorable map, Republican control of the Senate looked quite secure for the duration of Trump’s second term, with a chance to increase that margin.

Instead, Republicans emerged from the midterms having lost at least seven Senate seats and probably nine, giving Democrats at least a 54-46 majority, and likely a 56-44 advantage. Republicans somehow lost Senate seats in South Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio all by four percentage points or more based on current tallies. They got flat-out blown out in Texas, losing by 12 points and 1.2 million votes. They lost by five points in Kansas. The last time Democrats won a Senate race there, theatergoers had yet to hear Dorothy say she wasn’t in Kansas anymore. Although they still have a chance in each, Republicans probably also lost in Alaska and—incredibly—Mississippi, where RealClearPolitics didn’t list a single poll because the race wasn’t considered competitive enough to warrant one. They lost Susan Collins, the lone Republican senator who had consistently shown the ability to win on Democratic turf.

On top of all that, Republicans lost in North Carolina by about 20 points and Georgia, which had once looked winnable, by 18 points. In the open seat in Michigan, they faced a controversial candidate with a thin resume and an apparent fondness for radical Islam. His anti-Semitism spurred his Democratic rival to endorse the Republican, Mike Rogers. Yet Rogers lost by seven points. If that weren’t enough, Republicans will lose more than 40 House seats, giving Democrats their first 80-plus-seat House majority since 1992, before the Republican Revolution of 1994. Republicans’ Senate win in Nebraska and narrow Senate and gubernatorial wins in Florida were all that kept the midterms from being the GOP equivalent of Little Bighorn.

Contrary to the apologists on Fox News, such midterm results are anything but normal. Of the 47 Senate seats that changed parties in midterm elections between 1990 and 2022, only five were won by candidates whose party had lost by at least ten points during the prior presidential election in that state—in other words, deep in enemy territory. In only one election over that span had a party lost more than one such Senate seat. That was when President Obama experienced a self-described “shellacking” in the Tea Party-fueled 2010 midterms, after ramming Obamacare down Americans’ throats, as Democrats lost three seats in states that Obama had carried by double digits just two years prior. On Tuesday, Republicans managed to lose at least five such seats, and probably seven, in just one election—at least matching, and likely surpassing, the combined total lost by both parties in all midterm elections from 1990 through 2022.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis says of this election, “Democrats are unpopular…. This was not a positive view of the Democrats. This was a rejection of Republicans in Washington, and Democrats just happened to be the beneficiary.” There’s plenty of evidence in the exit polling to support DeSantis’s claim. Only 47% of voters said they have a “favorable” view of the Democrats, versus 52% who view them as “unfavorable.” Among those who feel “strongly,” only 16% view them favorably, and 35% view them unfavorably. The Democrats’ stock has also dropped with voters since 2018, when slightly more viewed them favorably (48%) than unfavorably (47%). It’s extraordinary that a party underwater with voters achieved such a landslide victory.

Vice President J.D. Vance blames the election result on the Iran war. On X he wrote, “The reason we lost is the war.” Vance asserted that “everyone knows why we lost,” that it’s “obvious,” and that “any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.” But that’s not remotely a full account of the Republicans’ disaster. There’s no doubt that the undeclared war in Iran is unpopular, as almost all presidentially initiated wars have been. But voters indicated in exit polling that it wasn’t their primary concern.

Rather, their number one stated concern was “government corruption.” A majority of voters (55%) said that this was a “crucial” reason for their vote, with 90% saying it was either a “crucial” or “major” factor. Those 90% of voters went for the Democrats by 16 points (57-41%).

In comparison, about a third of voters (34%) said “the war in Iran” was a “crucial” reason for their vote, with about three-quarters (74%) saying it was either a “crucial” or “major” factor. This puts the Iran War essentially on par with “immigration enforcement” (36% “crucial,” 73% at least “major”) as an influence on voters. The difference is that a majority of those who viewed the Iran War as a “crucial” or “major” factor in their voting backed the Democrats (by 30 points, 64-34%), whereas those who viewed immigration enforcement in that way supported the GOP (51-47%). Indeed, immigration was the election’s one bright spot for Republicans. When asked which party “is better able to handle” eight aspects of governance, “immigration” was the only one on which voters favored Republicans (43-41%).

A close second to “corruption” in voters’ minds was “cost of living.” Forty-nine percent called it “crucial” to their vote, and 89% said it was either a “crucial” or “major” factor; this group favored Democrats by 20 points, 59-39%. While the cost of living is certainly affected by the Iran War, it is also affected by other factors, as voters indicated. Roughly two-thirds (66%) said “Trump’s tariff policies” have “hurt” the national economy (versus 21% who said they have “helped” it), and those voters backed Democrats by a margin of 63 points (81-18%). A similar percentage (63%) primarily blame “Trump’s policies” writ large for “higher than usual prices.”

Sixty-three percent of voters said it was the “wrong decision” to take “military action against Iran.” This is almost identical to the percentage who said Trump doesn’t have “the right priorities” (64%), doesn’t fight “for people like [me]” (63%), and prioritizes “his own personal interests” over “the country’s interests” (62%). In all four of these instances, more than 80% of voters who faulted Trump went for the Democrats. In short, the Iran War is one of many things voters registered their objections to, not the principal one, and certainly not the only one.

Interestingly, voters’ opinions on the economy effectively mirrored their opinions during the 2022 midterms. In both cases, only 2% of voters said the economy was in “excellent” condition, while between 38% (in 2022) and 36% (in 2026) said it was in “poor” shape. But in 2022, voters didn’t direct their wrath at the party in power as they did in 2026. A major difference appears to be that, in 2022, almost as many voters (28%) said they voted to “oppose Trump” as said they voted to “oppose Biden,” the sitting president (32%). This time around, 44% said they voted in part to “express opposition to Donald Trump” (versus 16% who wanted to show him “support”), but there was no remotely comparable target for voters’ anger on the other side of the aisle.

On abortion, Republicans once again won the votes of those who hold more middle-ground views on the issue—that is, those who think abortion shouldn’t always be legal or always be illegal, but instead should be legal in some cases and illegal in others. The 63% of voters who expressed such views backed Republicans by four points (52-48%). But Democrats continue to benefit from the fact that enthusiastic abortion supporters (27% say abortion should be “legal in all cases”) far outnumber complete abortion opponents (9% say it should be “illegal in all cases”).

In the 2022 midterms and 2024 general election, Republicans won among white voters by at least 15 points and among men by at least 12 points. In 2026, Republicans didn’t win among any racial or ethnic group, either sex, or any age group. In 2024, voters ages 45-64—basically Gen Xers like DeSantis and Marco Rubio—almost single-handedly carried Trump across the finish line. They went for Trump by ten points, while he lost, or won by no more than one point, among every other age group. This time, Republicans lost that cohort by five points (47-52%).

Compared with 2024, Republicans lost huge numbers of Latino voters, going from -5 points (46-51%) in 2024 to -30 points (34-64%) in 2026, with the biggest swing being among Latino men (from +10 to -19). Relative to the 2022 midterms, however, Republicans’ biggest drops were among white voters (from +18 points to tied) and men (from +14 to -2). In 2026, an outright majority of voters (54%) said they “strongly” disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, a higher percentage than the share who strongly disapproved of Biden in 2022 (45%), Trump in 2018 (46%), Obama in 2014 (42%), or George W. Bush in 2006 (41%). Even Congress (at 47%) didn’t have a majority of voters express strong opposition to the job it’s doing, although far more people strongly approve of Trump’s job performance (20%) than Congress’s (3%).

If this election can be summed up in a single exit-poll question, it might be this one: “Do you think Congress is doing too much, not enough, or about the right amount to provide checks and balances on the presidency?” Seventy-one percent of voters said “not enough,” and they voted for the Democrats by more than a three-to-one margin (75-24%). (Only 9% said Congress is providing “too much” of a check.) Voters’ desire to see power checked could give Republicans some hope for 2028, especially if the newly elected Democratic House and Senate overplay their hands.

One wonders how different this election’s outcome might have been if the 250th anniversary of American independence had been celebrated with the patriotic fervor of the Bicentennial. Instead, Americans are angry and ready to throw tea in the harbor. They wanted so badly to rebuke President Trump and his congressional allies that they were willing to handsomely reward a party they don’t even like.

Entrenched Democratic control of the Senate will change the nation’s outlook. Given the Democrats’ professed desire to pack the Supreme Court, thereby sabotaging the separation of powers and checks and balances; to kill the filibuster, allowing them to do whatever they want without compromising with their political opponents; and to continue their march leftward, the stakes in the next presidential election just got inordinately high—higher, perhaps, than in any election since 1860. Voters will be looking for the competent, reliable, steady hand they don’t think they’ve had at the helm in some time.